Daniel Ellsberg, famous
for having leaked the Pentagon Papers during the Vietnam War, has delivered a
darkly seasonal present for the New Year: a reminder in his new book of the
consequences of “nuclear winter”, and a warning that existing nuclear weapons
systems could still deliver it — all the more to be feared with Donald Trump in
the White House. And he introduces us to a grim word which should be part of
our discourse as we campaign to abolish those weapons — Omnicide.
When working
in the
Pentagon on nuclear strategy in 1961, Ellsberg asked the Joint Chief of Staffs
this question: how many people would die if their plans for general nuclear war
were carried out. “Three hundred million in the Soviet Union and China”, the
answer came back, and double that number through "collateral damage elsewhere.
But this
estimate did
not take into account the phenomenon of nuclear winter, only fully researched
later, in which the smoke injected into the stratosphere by the nuclear explosions
blots out the sky and destroys the means of existence: in reality a nuclear war
then, says Ellsberg, would have led to the death of almost all the world’s
population.
And
today? There are
fewer weapons now, but they are more powerful and could be just as devastating,
and would result in Omnicide, the term coined by the America peace philosopher
John Somerville, at the height of nuclear confrontation.
“In
other words, first-strike nuclear attacks by either side very much smaller than
were planned in the sixties and seventies—and which are still prepared for
instant execution in both Russia and America—would still kill by loss of
sunlight and resulting starvation nearly all the humans on earth, now over
seven billion".
Ellsberg's
book, published this December by Bloomsbury USA, is called The Doomsday Machine: Confessions
of a Nuclear War Planner, (and for
those who have Kindle, his Introduction can be downloaded for free). Its sub-title
indicates a complex back-story
about Ellsberg's career working on nuclear strategy in the 1960s and on how he
had originally planned to release a cache of secret documents on this subject
after the Pentagon Papers. But I hope
that his personal narrative will not get in the way, when the book is reviewed,
of the message he now seeks to convey, namely that
"The present risks of the
current nuclear era go far beyond the dangers of proliferation and non-state
terrorism that have been the almost exclusive focus of public concern for the
past generation and the past decade in particular. The arsenals and plans of
the two superpowers represent not only an insuperable obstacle to an effective
global anti-proliferation campaign; they are in themselves a clear and present
existential danger to the human species, and most others".
Ellsberg
bases his argument on three counts: the most familiar one is that of nuclear
war by false alarm or accident, and this is not the first such warning. In 2013
Eric Schlosser's Command and Control
provided a shocking picture of the nuclear accidents and near-misses over past
decades. Schlosser concluded with the warning that the weapons systems that may
be so fallible are still there -- "every one of them is an accident
waiting to happen, a potential act of mass murder".
But
Ellsberg explores another significant dimension: the doctrine of
"first-use" which means that the US (and also Russia) insist on
retaining a capability to strike first with nuclear weapons -- not a "bolt
out of the blue" but pre-emptively.
The scenario would be one where it is feared that the "other
side" is planning to attack, and here too there is obviously ample space
for mistakes and miscalculation.
Ellsberg
also draws our attention to a less well-known problem -- the system of delegating
the "power to launch" to other military or even civilian authorities
in the case of crisis: this, he says, has been "one of our highest
national secrets". He suggests too
that the same system of delegation may exist in all other nuclear weapons states,
including the newer ones. "How many fingers are on Pakistani nuclear
buttons?", he asks. "Probably not even the president of Pakistan
knows reliably." So we may need to
be worried by more than the single finger in the White House and the other one in
Pyongyang.